JC14 Football Data Analysis: Key Signals and Risk Notes

The single strongest data point of the entire slate. Kelly confidence sits at **82.31%**, the only match to breach the 80% confidence threshold. This is as close to a model-based lock as the data provides today.

Three further matches — Ulsan Hyundai (**77.90%**), Morocco (**73.77%**), and Brazil as home favorite (**73.22%**) — each cross the **60% Kelly probability** barrier with confidence levels between **56.75% and 63.47%**. The pattern is stark: the model sees away quality prevailing across multiple continents.

All five 14-Match model outputs favor away sides (Hammarby, GAIS, Djurgården, Örgryte, AIK) but none surpass **62.51%** probability and confidence ranges from a meager **1.20%** to **39.66%**. These are caution flags, not conviction signals.